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The Newsletter

Markets went haywire last week thanks (so the story goes) to some retail traders in a Reddit forum led by a man named Roaring Kitty.  It was hard to pay attention to much of anything else in capital markets, but it was also a busy week for earnings. Industrial companies said that demand was “very, very, very strong” and there was an abundance of commentary on price pressures. Jerome Powell isn’t worried though. Game on!

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: The US got a new President last week, and the new administration is pledging more stimulus.  The economy continues to chug along though and there are signs of tight capacity in some segments, especially transportation networks. Could additional stimulus lead to higher-than-expected inflation?

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: Vaccinations are happening around the US and the world.  It’s been a little slower than hoped but that may be because of the logistical challenges of administering vaccines at long-term care facilities.  We are on the cusp of mass dissemination, and there should be enough capacity to make sure that the population is vaccinated quickly. We’ve lost a year of our lives to COVID but the finish line is (hopefully) in sight. Vaccination should unleash a huge amount of pent up demand. Banks, which started to report this week, have showed that credit performance metrics have been better than anyone dreamed possible in March of 2020. They’re releasing reserves and preparing to return capital to shareholders. Tech spend is also booming.

Something New: We launched a new podcast last week where we discuss the top quotes and ideas from the earnings transcripts we read.  It is now available on Apple Podcast, Google Podcast and Spotify and other podcast platforms. Subscribe and give us a review. We hope to be sending a new episode out every Tuesday. 

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: Capital markets are ending 2020 with a bang thanks in part to last week’s hot IPOs.  Business leaders are feeling confident about 2021 and expect next year’s earnings to exceed 2019’s.  Consumer spending is similarly strong.  Even the housing market is stronger than in ’05.  It’s a K shaped recovery for some industries but a vaccine should unleash pent up demand and high unemployment means that interest rates will stay low for longer. Readers should keep an eye on growing supply chain bottlenecks.  This could be a source of some inflationary pressure.

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: Consumer spending remains strong and Black Friday was successful.  A third wave of COVID has made the near term outlook worse, but the medium to long term looks much brighter thanks to vaccines.  Tech spending continues to outpace overall GDP growth and probably will continue to surge after the pandemic is over. The driver of spending has moved from devices towards data infrastructure and management.

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: Retailers reported strong quarters last week showing that the US consumer remains resilient despite high unemployment.  A new wave of Covid could slow the economy back down but vaccines are almost here.  It will be interesting to see what behaviors have been permanently altered by the pandemic and which ones will return to the way that they were.  Business travel is one thing that may be permanently changed.

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: Pfizer announced that its vaccine is 90% effective and that gave a boost to market confidence. The vaccine could be great news for the industry and great news for society. Pfizer says that it will have over 1B doses ready next year. The vaccine could lead to some reflationary outcomes.

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

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