Confidence is high in the US thanks to strong vaccination rates. What will the new normal look like though? Offices could re-open by summer, but how much will we continue to work from home? And how much will we travel for business? Supply chains are still bottlenecked, leading to inflation pressure. The blockage of the Suez Canal won’t help that
Succinct Summary: Vaccinations are happening around the US and the world. It’s been a little slower than hoped but that may be because of the logistical challenges of administering vaccines at long-term care facilities. We are on the cusp of mass dissemination, and there should be enough capacity to make sure that the population is vaccinated quickly. We’ve lost a year of our lives to COVID but the finish line is (hopefully) in sight. Vaccination should unleash a huge amount of pent up demand. Banks, which started to report this week, have showed that credit performance metrics have been better than anyone dreamed possible in March of 2020. They’re releasing reserves and preparing to return capital to shareholders. Tech spend is also booming.
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Succinct Summary: It is quite clear by now that we are in a recession. The hope is that this is a different kind of recession and that we will be out of it quickly. But that depends on the trajectory of containing the virus. The good news is that things in China look better after containing the virus.
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