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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: Vaccinations are happening around the US and the world.  It’s been a little slower than hoped but that may be because of the logistical challenges of administering vaccines at long-term care facilities.  We are on the cusp of mass dissemination, and there should be enough capacity to make sure that the population is vaccinated quickly. We’ve lost a year of our lives to COVID but the finish line is (hopefully) in sight. Vaccination should unleash a huge amount of pent up demand. Banks, which started to report this week, have showed that credit performance metrics have been better than anyone dreamed possible in March of 2020. They’re releasing reserves and preparing to return capital to shareholders. Tech spend is also booming.

Something New: We launched a new podcast last week where we discuss the top quotes and ideas from the earnings transcripts we read.  It is now available on Apple Podcast, Google Podcast and Spotify and other podcast platforms. Subscribe and give us a review. We hope to be sending a new episode out every Tuesday. 

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: The economy was rebounding in May and June, but the recovery seems to have stalled out as infections have rebounded.  CEO commentary was particularly negative last week.  Business leaders are rapidly losing confidence and do not see a V-shaped recovery materializing.  There’s a sense that government stimulus appears to be the only thing propping up the economy and it’s creating distortions in unemployment and financial markets.  Still (perhaps because of this stimulus) the hot housing market suggests that consumers may not actually be in such bad shape after all–just spending on different things.

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

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The Newsletter

A Personal Note: A lot has happened in the last two weeks we have been away. We start on a very positive note—warm congratulations to my co-author Scott Krisiloff and his wife on the birth of their beautiful twins this past week. On a different note, the challenge of racism has come to the forefront of global news. This week, we have a special section on quotes on the reactions from corporate management teams on the issued of racism. The bottom line is that we have a problem that needs fixing. I have also written a personal article about my experience of racism in Scandinavia. – Erick Mokaya

Succinct Summary: There are some glimmers of hope across such industries like airlines, travel and retail as demand picks up from the April lows. We are, however, being cautioned about being too excited and urged to be cautious. All in all, there is significant pent-up demand. 

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: The decline in economic activity has been huge and the recovery may take longer than expected.  However, bulls are betting on massive stimulus in an environment that was already highly liquid prior to the Covid crisis.  Consumers are itching to get back to normal and some hard hit industries are seeing stabilizing trends.  But the economy is subject to the machinations of non-economic forces: governments and a poorly understood disease.

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: The Covid-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global challenge unlike anything that we’ve seen for 100 years. It is like a war with an invisible enemy. It requires coordination and cooperation from all of us. Many industries like airlines and restaurants are seeing their businesses disappear overnight. But the economic impact is nothing compared to the human impact if we don’t act. Hospital systems are already being stretched to their limits and the worst may still be ahead. Let’s hope not. Our best hope of averting that fate is to buy ourselves time via social distancing and break down regulatory barriers for potential treatments. (Go to Covidactnow.org to see how important social distancing is in the US).

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary:  The Transcript this week is all about the Coronavirus that is rapidly spreading globally and crippling the global economy.  This is not only an economic setback but also a major humanitarian crisis. We hope, as do many, that the effects are transitory and that this will be our finest hour!

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary:  2020 begins with a surge of optimism.  The consumer continues to be a bright spot for the economy and business sentiment seems to be turning a corner.  Fundamentals are strong and the cherry on top is that interest rates remain low.  Capital markets love this environment.

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary:  The consumer continues to show strength with higher holiday spending. Business spending isn’t quite as strong though but companies, especially small businesses, are optimistic. As such, most CEOs don’t expect a recession in 2020.  Historically, presidential election years are usually good for the stock market.

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