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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: The US got a new President last week, and the new administration is pledging more stimulus.  The economy continues to chug along though and there are signs of tight capacity in some segments, especially transportation networks. Could additional stimulus lead to higher-than-expected inflation?

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The Newsletter

The Year in Review: 2020 was an unprecedented year and The Transcript covered the economy throughout all of its twists and turns. Even though China was battling Covid in 2019, no one really knew what was in store for all of us in 2020. Technology, capital markets, and housing were three industries that boomed. While the stimulus was integral, the economic hero of 2020 was the US consumer. Optimism is high that 2021 will be a more normal year.

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: Pfizer announced that its vaccine is 90% effective and that gave a boost to market confidence. The vaccine could be great news for the industry and great news for society. Pfizer says that it will have over 1B doses ready next year. The vaccine could lead to some reflationary outcomes.

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: The Great Recession of ’08 pales in comparison to the kind of recession that we have here. The UK just recorded the worst quarterly recession on record. The virus levels remain stubbornly high in many places. The hope comes from the modest recovery in some hard-hit industries. 

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: The modern economy has never experienced economic carnage on the scale of COVID19.  US GDP is forecast to fall by 30-40% while unemployment is likely to rise to 20-30%.  What matters though, is how long it lasts.  A 30% rate of decline in production for a quarter is different from a 30% decline for a whole year.  As public attention seems to turn from the virus to the economy, debate is on whether we will see a V-shaped recovery or not.  There are lots of reasons why we are unlikely to see such a rapid recovery but there are also glimmers of economic hope.  Still, the path of the economy seems to pale in comparison to the importance of the path of humanity.

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

 

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: The next two weeks could be very painful for the US but hopefully we are approaching the peak for the growth of infections.  Still, the economy could be locked down for a long time and no one really knows how things will look as we come out of this.  It’s hard to keep the consumer down.

Reminder: This weekly newsletter is supported by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep the Transcript going.

 

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: It is quite clear by now that we are in a recession. The hope is that this is a different kind of recession and that we will be out of it quickly. But that depends on the trajectory of containing the virus. The good news is that things in China look better after containing the virus.
Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading and want to help us keep it going, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month).

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary:  2020 begins with a surge of optimism.  The consumer continues to be a bright spot for the economy and business sentiment seems to be turning a corner.  Fundamentals are strong and the cherry on top is that interest rates remain low.  Capital markets love this environment.

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The Newsletter

Succinct Summary:  The consumer continues to show strength with higher holiday spending. Business spending isn’t quite as strong though but companies, especially small businesses, are optimistic. As such, most CEOs don’t expect a recession in 2020.  Historically, presidential election years are usually good for the stock market.

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