The economy is booming and companies are expecting robust growth in the second half of 2021 and 2022. Travel is starting to rebound and cities are coming back to life. Stimulus has left consumers with a tremendous amount of liquidity and we are spending. Institutional investors are increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures.
Covid cases are dropping, vaccines are being administered and warmer weather is coming. Fatigued consumers are ready to return to normal. We especially miss traveling.
The Year in Review: 2020 was an unprecedented year and The Transcript covered the economy throughout all of its twists and turns. Even though China was battling Covid in 2019, no one really knew what was in store for all of us in 2020. Technology, capital markets, and housing were three industries that boomed. While the stimulus was integral, the economic hero of 2020 was the US consumer. Optimism is high that 2021 will be a more normal year.
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Succinct Summary: Capital markets are ending 2020 with a bang thanks in part to last week’s hot IPOs. Business leaders are feeling confident about 2021 and expect next year’s earnings to exceed 2019’s. Consumer spending is similarly strong. Even the housing market is stronger than in ’05. It’s a K shaped recovery for some industries but a vaccine should unleash pent up demand and high unemployment means that interest rates will stay low for longer. Readers should keep an eye on growing supply chain bottlenecks. This could be a source of some inflationary pressure.
Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.